• Cover
• Other Books by This Author
• Title Page
• Copyright
• Dedication
• Contents
• Introduction
• Part I: Two Systems
  • 1. The Characters of the Story
  • 2. Attention and Effort
  • 3. The Lazy Controller
  • 4. The Associative Machine
  • 5. Cognitive Ease
  • 6. Norms, Surprises, and Causes
  • 7. A Machine for Jumping to Conclusions
  • 8. How Judgments Happen
  • 9. Answering an Easier Question
• Part II: Heuristics and Biases
  • 10. The Law of Small Numbers
  • 11. Anchors
  • 12. The Science of Availability
  • 13. Availability, Emotion, and Risk
  • 14. Tom W’s Specialty
  • 15. Linda: Less is More
  • 16. Causes Trump Statistics
  • 17. Regression to the Mean
  • 18. Taming Intuitive Predictions
• Part III: Overconfidence
  • 19. The Illusion of Understanding
  • 20. The Illusion of Validity
  • 21. Intuitions vs. Formulas
  • 22. Expert Intuition: When can we Trust It?
  • 23. The Outside View
  • 24. The Engine of Capitalism
• Part IV: Choices
  • 25. Bernoulli’s Errors
  • 26. Prospect Theory
  • 27. The Endowment Effect
  • 28. Bad Events
  • 29. The Fourfold Pattern
  • 30. Rare Events
  • 31. Risk Policies
  • 32. Keeping Score
  • 33. Reversals
  • 34. Frames and Reality
• Part V: Two Selves
  • 35. Two Selves
  • 36. Life as a Story
  • 37. Experienced Well-Being
  • 38. Thinking About Life
• Conclusions
• Appendix A: Judgment Under Uncertainty
• Appendix B: Choices, Values, and Frames
• Notes
• Acknowledgments